Community-level trait shifts have already been observed, with taller species spreading in a warming Arctic 12. In particular, the phenomenon of ‘shrubification’ has been extensively described across the tundra biome 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, with shrub species experiencing faster growth and reproduction, increases in height 9, 10 and expansion into new areas 5, 7, 11. The Arctic is warming up to four times the rate of the global average 1, 2, resulting in reported shifts in biodiversity. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 3837 ( 2023)Ĭlimate change is leading to species redistributions.

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

Composer of animals in the tundra